Prio Partners - Investment Commentary

IC No. 36 – The Market Riddle

The completion of the first quarter of 2024 marks the end of a strong quarter on the stock markets. The MSCI World Total Return gained +8.9% (in USD), the DAX +10.4% (in EUR) and the SMI +5.3% (in CHF). But how can that be?

IC No. 35 – Outlook of the Outlooks

Every year, we summarise the annual outlooks of selected financial institutions and give our clients and partners what they can’t buy: Time. In our IC No. 35 – “Outlook of the outlooks 2024”, the topics shown graphically according to frequency and importance indicate the market consensus.

AK Nr. 34 – Taktische Portfoliosteuerung

IC No. 34 – Tactical Portfolio Management

Throughout history, humans have sought to predict the future to ensure planning security and efficient resource allocation. While forecasting is effective in certain domains like weather, its accuracy declines over longer timeframes. Predicting financial market conditions with high precision is an ideal goal, but it’s important to acknowledge that such accuracy remains elusive.

IC No. 33 – The noise of the trees

One of the advantages of capital markets is that investors can participate in the world’s best companies with the click of a button. However, with a wide range of options comes the dilemma of choice. Where does it make sense to invest, and where should one refrain?

IC No. 32 – Déjà-vu?

The sale of Credit Suisse to UBS by emergency law on Sunday, March 19, 2023, marks the end of the 166-year history of Switzerland’s second-largest bank.

IC No. 31 – Outlook of the outlooks

In the last outlook for 2022, some developments tended to be estimated correctly, but the risks were underestimated. This picture looks different for the 2023 outlook. Our summary of the top 10 topics from a diverse mix of banks and asset managers shows a much more cautious approach.

IC No. 30 – Wrap up warmly

In Europe, we have to wrap up warmly in many respects. Not only in terms of energy bottlenecks, but also with regard to bad corporate news and longer-term consequences.

IC No. 29 – Don’t fight the FED

We have never boxed before, but we do understand a few simple basic rules: if possible, do not box against stronger opponents. Pace yourself. Keep your guard up in difficult phases. Keep moving and don’t let yourself be pushed into a corner.

IC No. 28 – In shock

We are all shocked. The situation in Ukraine is so unbelievably terrible, the war so inhumane. In a way, the feeling of being paralysed by shock has also transferred to the stock market and investors.

IC No. 27 – Beauty and the Beast

The stock markets of the last few years can be summarized briefly. Cheap money, low-interest rates, companies with record profits, no alternative to shares and, when in doubt, the central banks intervene. The result is an impressive price development over the last decades, exemplified by the US stock markets.